Assessment of the impacts under future climate change on the energy systems with the POLES model

This paper presents the way we try to explore the most important impacts of climate change on the energy systems with the POLES model. We present the main features and adaptations of the POLES model with details on the treatment of the electricity demand in the residential and service sector, of the hydro and thermal electricity generation and energy demand for water supply while using climate drivers coming from other models. Comparisons of the results of the Reference projection with and without the taking into account of the effects of climate change on energy systems for the World and for Europe (EU27) up to 2100 are displayed in the paper.POLES MODEL ; CLIMATE CHANGE ; SCENARIO ; ENERGY SYSTEM ; ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION

Exploring the Energy Security and Climate Policy Nexus with the POLES Energy Model in the SECURE Project.

The three pillars of EU energy policies, competitiveness through a unified market, sustainability and environmental protection and finally energy security are sometimes presented as conflicting and sometimes as complementary. In this paper, these dimensions of EU policies are explored through a set of scenarios simulated with the POLES model. In order to analyse the impacts of the trade-offs among these three goals on the EU 27 energy sector, five scenarios have been developed.POLES MODEL ; CLIMATE CHANGE ; SCENARIO ; ENERGY POLICY

European gas market : stakes and perspectives

World reserves of natural gas are abundant and expected to increase up to 2050. World gas production is projected to more than double between 2000 and 2050. However, regional disparities in gas reserves and production costs are expected to modify the regional gas supply pattern in 2050: about half of the total gas production will originate from the CIS and the Middle East.Important uncertainties remain on the EU27 gas demand and supply in the long term. For example, on one hand, the enlargement of the EU modifies the landscape. The question of the penetration of the natural gas in the energy balance is for a “new entrant” an important aspect of their energy policy. On the other hand, the liberalisation of the EU gas market may have important consequences on the strategies of gas producers like Russia.ENERGY ; INTERNATIONAL MARKET ; NATURAL GAS

The european energy system in the context of long term climate policies

The future of the European energy system will strongly depend on a future world energy context that will be dominated by two key challenges. The first challenge corresponds to the necessity of meeting the energy needs of a growing population in Asia, South America and Africa, while some key energy resources – oil and natural gas – enter in a process of increasing scarcity. The second challenge results from the need to rapidly adjust the structure of the world energy system in order to meet the tightening constraints induced by the will to limit anthropogenic climate change. Both issues are clearly strategic for Europe as on the one hand the Union will have to master a growing import dependency from the international markets and neighbouring regions, and as on the other hand it intends to take the lead on the international scene for climate change mitigation policies.Analyses of world long term energy scenario show that the growing scarcity on hydrocarbon supply will not solve the climate change problem as it will rather result in increased coal consumption. Conversely seriously addressing the climate change challenge will imply lower fossil fuel consumption, allow an extension of oil and gas reserves and lead to a real double dividend in terms of sustainability: by climate change mitigation and by reduced tensions and risks of crises on the oil and gas markets. Similarly, ambitious GHG abatement scenarios for Europe will allow limiting the Union's import dependency, which is of course one key element of overall security. Thus, addressing the fossil fuel emissions abatement issue clearly appears as a top priority on the agenda. In this paper we focus on what GHG emissions mitigation policies mean for the European energy system within a global frameworkPROSPECTIVE ; LONG TERM ; CLIMATE POLICY ; EUROPE ; ENERGY SYSTEM

European climate -- energy security nexus: A model based scenario analysis

In this research, we provide an overview of the climate-security nexus in the European energy sector, through a model based analysis of scenarios produced with the POLES model. The scenarios describe the consequences of different degrees of GHG emission constraint, at world level, but also for a case where Europe adopts an ambitious climate policy, while the rest of the world sticks to much more modest abatement policies. The analysis shows that under such stringent climate policies, Europe may benefit of a significant double dividend, first in its capacity to develop a new cleaner and climate-friendlier energy model, and second in a lower vulnerability to potential price or supply shocks on the international energy markets.climate policy ; scenarios ; energy security

Mitigation strategies and energy technology learning: an assessment with the POLES model

International audienceThis paper explores various dimensions of the learning process for low-carbon technologies under different mitigation scenarios. It uses the POLES model, which addresses learning as an endogenous phenomenon with learning curves, and a set of scenarios developed as part of the AMPERE project. It represents an analytical effort to understand the learning patterns of energy technologies in various contexts and tries to disentangle the different dimensions of the relation between these patterns and the deployment process. One result is, surprisingly, that apparent learning may be slower in mitigation scenarios with accelerated technology deployment when using two-factor learning curves. Second, the R&D analysis clearly shows that reductions in R&D budgets have significant impacts on long term technology costs. Third, solar technology which is more constrained by floor costs in the model benefits more from major technological breakthroughs than wind energy. Finally, ambitious stabilization targets can be met with limited cost increases in the electricity sector, thanks to the impact of learning effects on the improvement in technology costs and performances

White Knights: Will wind and solar come to the rescue of a looming capacity gap from nuclear phase-out or slow CCS start-up?

International audienceIn the wake of the Fukushima nuclear accident, countries like Germany and Japan have planned a phase-out of nuclear generation. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology has yet to become a commercially viable technology with little prospect of doing so without strong climate policy to spur development. The possibility of using renewable power generation from wind and solar as a non-emitting alternative to replace a nuclear phase-out or failure to deploy CCS technology is investigated using scenarios from EMF27 and the POLES model. A strong carbon price appears necessary to have significant penetration of renewables regardless of alternative generation technologies available, but especially if nuclear or CCS are absent from the energy supply system. The feasibility of replacing nuclear generation appears possible at realistic costs (evaluated as total abatement costs and final user prices to households); however for ambitious climate policies, such as a 450 ppm target, CCS could represent a critical technology that renewables will not be able to fully replace without unbearable economic costs

Impact des politiques climatiques sur le prix du carbone et les marchés de l'énergie

Ce papier vise à analyser les interactions entre les politiques de stabilisation des concentrations de gaz à effet de serre dans l'atmosphère et les fondamentaux de la scène pétrolière mondiale, à partir de simulations du modèle POLES. La « valeur du carbone » est l'artifice de modélisation qui synthétise l'intensité des politiques climatiques. Elle constitue le signal qui déclenche les investissements de réduction des émissions de gaz à effet de serre, investissements socialement responsables au regard du défi climatique. La comparaison d'un scénario énergétique tendanciel avec un scénario de division par quatre des émissions des pays industrialisés à l'horizon 2050 permet de montrer que la conduite de politiques climatiques très ambitieuses permet à la fois de limiter le changement climatique et de gérer la question de l'épuisement des ressources mondiales d'hydrocarbures.CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE ; POLITIQUE ENVIRONNEMENTALE ; PRIX ; CARBONE ; RESSOURCE ENERGETIQUE ; HYDROCARBURES ; SCENARIO ; MODELE POLES

Low Climate Stabilisation under Diverse Growth and Convergence Scenarios

4 p.In the last decade, a few papers have analysed the consequences of achieving the greenhouse gas concentration levels necessary to maintain global temperature increases below 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels. Most models and scenarios assume that future trends in global GDP will be similar to the growth experienced in the past century, which would imply multiplying current output nineteen-fold in this century. However, natural resource and environmental constraints suggest that future global economic growth may not be so high. Furthermore, the environmental implications of such growth depend on how it is distributed across countries. This paper studies the implications on GHG abatement policies of different assumptions on global GDP growth and convergence levels. A partial equilibrium model (POLES) of the world´s energy system is used to provide detailed projections up to 2050 for the different regions of the world. The results suggest that while low stabilisation is technically feasible and economically viable for the world in all the scenarios considered, it is more likely to occur with more modest global growth. Convergence in living standards on the other hand places greater pressures in terms of the required reduction in emissions. In general we find that there are major differences between regions in terms of the size and the timing of abatement costs and economic impact

Low Climate Stabilisation under Diverse Growth and Convergence Scenarios

9 p.In the last decade, a few papers have analysed the consequences of achieving the greenhouse gas concentration levels necessary to maintain global temperature increases below 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels. Most models and scenarios assume that future trends in global GDP will be similar to the growth experienced in the past century, which would imply multiplying current output nineteen-fold in this century. However, natural resource and environmental constraints suggest that future global economic growth may not be so high. Furthermore, the environmental implications of such growth depend on how it is distributed across countries. This paper studies the implications on GHG abatement policies of different assumptions on global GDP growth and convergence levels. A partial equilibrium model (POLES) of the world´s energy system is used to provide detailed projections up to 2050 for the different regions of the world. The results suggest that while low stabilisation is technically feasible and economically viable for the world in all the scenarios considered, it is more likely to occur with more modest global growth. Convergence in living standards on the other hand places greater pressures in terms of the required reduction in emissions. In general we find that there are major differences between regions in terms of the size and the timing of abatement costs and economic impact